I read an article on FlightGlobal.com that clearly shows the number of aircraft that are being forecast to be needed to service the airline industry for the next 20 years. I want to share some of it with you:
Airbus has forecast demand for 28,355 new passenger aircraft and 871 new freighters in its latest 20-year global market forecast (GMF) covering the period 2013-2032.
In 2012 there were 17,739 aircraft with over 100 seats in service. Airbus is forecasting that 7,330 of these will still be in operation by 2032 and the remaining 10,409 will be replaced with newer models. A further 18,817 will be needed for growth, as the global fleet swells to 36,566 aircraft and global RPKs more than double from 5.5 trillion to 13.9 trillion.
“The world fleet of 16,094 passenger aircraft will double. We also have 1,645 dedicated freighters today and we will need about 77% more. We are forecasting demand for 29,226 new aircraft above 100 seats, worth €4.4 trillion at catalogue prices,” Airbus COO-customers John Leahy told media in London on Tuesday.
Airbus divides the 29,226 new aircraft into 20,242 single-aisles, 7,273 twin-aisles and 1,711 very large aircraft. The total marks a 1,028 increase on Airbus’ 2012 GMF, up by 724 single-aisles, 299 twin-aisles and five very large aircraft.
The European aircraft manufacturer also forecasts that growing urbanization will drive a strong increase in the number of ‘mega cities’, handling more than 10,000 long-haul passengers a day. Today 42 cities handle 93% of long-haul demand, but by 2032 this will increase to 89 cities handling 99% of demand.
“Every 15 years, air traffic in terms of RPKs has doubled. Under our forecast this will continue. Over the next 10 years, we will see 5.1% compounded [RPK] growth, slowing down to 4.4% over the following 10 years off a very, very big base,” said Leahy.