Boeing is the world’s largest producer of Airliners, and every year they take an objective look at the future of the airline business. This report is called Boeing’s Current Market Outlook and it is based on current firm orders for its aircraft. The Current Market Outlook is the most accurate projection of what the airline industry is going to be for the next 20 years.
In the latest edition of the Outlook, Boeing states:
“Over the past 20 years, air travel grew by an average of 4.8 percent each year. This was despite two major world recessions, terrorist acts, the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 and two Gulf wars. During 40 years of producing the Current Market Outlook, we have learned that the resilience of air transport growth comes from its importance to the livelihood of people around the world.”
“On average over the next 20 years, passenger travel will grow at 5.0 percent and cargo at 5.8 percent. The fastest growing economies will lead the transformation into a more geographically balanced market.”
”A record 31 percent of our forecast for airplanes with more than 100 seats is already on firm order (7,900 aircraft), so we have unprecedented visibility of future airplane requirements, giving more certainty to the shape of our forecast.”
Boeing predicts that, based on current orders, the airline industry will continue to grow from present levels of 19,000 to over 35,800 aircraft in airline service by the year 2027. In order to meet demand to crew these aircraft, 19,000 pilots will need to be trained each year until 2026. Flight schools currently train around 16,000 annually.